Learn how understanding the bond yield curve's signals can inform economic forecasts and enhance your investment decisions ...

There are a lot of recession predictors people watch: Some track imports, some track wholesale prices, some even track light truck sales and Statue of Liberty visits. But one of the most watched ...

The inverted yield curve is one of the more reliable recession indicators. I discussed it at length last December. At that point, we had not yet seen a full inversion. Now we have, and it appears the ...

Two years ago, the yield curve inverted, meaning short-term interest rates on treasury bonds were unusually higher than long term rates. When that's happened in the past, a recession has come. A key ...

The yield curve inverted in June 2022, and as we all know, the recession never came. When it flipped positive in 2024, ...

The yield curve has long been a closely watched indicator of economic health. When the yield curve inverts, meaning short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, it is often seen as a harbinger of ...

The longest inverted yield curve on record may finally be in the rearview mirror. The yield on the 2-year note closed at 3.651%, according to Tradeweb, lower than the 10-year yield, which settled at 3 ...

The yield curve shows the difference in the short- and long-term interest rates of bonds and other fixed-income securities issued by the U.S. Treasury. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term ...

For much of the last two years, the 2-year US Treasury yield has traded above the 10-year yield. When that happens, it historically has meant a recession is looming. So you’d think that investors and ...

Explore Treasury yield forecasts: 3‑month bills likely 1%–2%, curve inversion odds, negative-rate risk, and default dangers ...